Overview of the Report
Rising global oil production, particularly from the US, and OPEC+ efforts to stabilise prices create a complex backdrop for 2024. Geopolitical tensions have also added a layer of complexity. Despite its crucial economic role, Nigeria’s oil industry grapples with infrastructure issues, theft, and underinvestment. Reforms like the Petroleum Industry Act aim to address these challenges, but current production falls short of OPEC+ quotas.
Agusto & Co. anticipates that enhanced security and new projects by domestic players will nudge up Nigeria’s oil production in the near term. However, OPEC+ quotas limit output, while global factors suggest oil prices will remain around $85 per barrel in 2024, a balance between geopolitical tensions and sluggish global growth.
Nigeria boasts vast natural gas reserves, which have become a major focus area, aligning with global trends. However, inadequate infrastructure, non-market pricing, regulatory uncertainty, and a volatile market hinder development. Although government initiatives offer some hope, we believe significant improvement in the near term is unlikely. Effective implementation of reforms, investments in infrastructure and security, and addressing bottlenecks in the gas sector are crucial for sustainable growth. Nigeria’s success in navigating this complex energy landscape is vital for long-term energy security and economic well-being