2022 Agricultural Commodity -Wheat Industry Report

Overview of the Report

Global wheat consumption in 2021 stood at 782.4 million metric tonnes (MMT), representing a 5% growth from 2020, and is dominated by China and India, the world’s largest consumers of wheat. The market was valued at US$ 218.3 trillion in 2021, a 16% increase from the previous year. This growth in market value was attributable to the twin impact of the surge in international wheat prices and an increase in wheat consumption as global economies gradually recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the global wheat market value is expected to grow at a slower rate of 5% in the short term, to reach US$ 240.6 trillion by 2023.

In Nigeria, wheat demand was estimated at 5.85 million metric tonnes in 2021, with total market size of ₦1.7 trillion. Agusto & Co expects domestic wheat demand to reach 6 million metric tonnes in 2022, which would be mostly driven by the extensive use of wheat in food processing and the ongoing demand for wheat flour-based products such as bread, semolina, noodles, pastries, and pasta.

Agusto & Co.’s 2022 Wheat Industry Report is the most comprehensive and up-to-date report on the Wheat Industry in Nigeria. The report provides an overview of the impact of global events such as the Russian-Ukraine war on the global wheat market and also analyses the key dynamics of the market – including drivers of wheat consumption, the activities of wheat producers and exporters as well as price trends.

The report provides an in-depth assessment of the Nigerian Wheat Industry, highlighting key trends and developments, demand and supply chain dynamics, market segmentation and key players, significant risk factors, and prospects. The nature of competition in the Industry, its regulatory environment and Industry economics are also analysed in the report.

Furthermore, the report identifies the recent trends in the Nigerian Wheat Industry, the market dynamics and value chain analysis – particularly the flour milling value chain – which represents the largest segment of the Nigerian Wheat market. While the demand for wheat by flour millers has increased steadily over the past five decades due to population expansion and increased demand for wheat-based foods, the report emphasizes the various obstacles impeding the growth of wheat production in Nigeria.

However, the report gives Agusto & Co’s growth expectations for the Industry over the short to medium term. Whilst we believe that achieving the desired level of self-sufficiency in Wheat production might be unattainable in the near term, we expect the Industry to record a significant increase in production levels over the near to medium term, owing to the continued commitment of both the government and flour millers to boosting supply and minimizing reliance on imports over the long term.