2026 Renewable Energy (Solar) Industry Report

Overview of the Report

In line with the global trend, renewable energy adoption in Nigeria is expected to increase over the medium term. Supported by the country’s abundant solar resource, rising energy costs, and persistent constraints to reliable grid electricity, we expect the deployment of solar energy to continue expanding. Policy initiatives such as the National Carbon Market Framework (NCMF), which seeks to establish a domestic carbon market and attract investment in emissions-reduction projects, alongside continued support from multilateral institutions, are expected to encourage further investment in solar energy infrastructure in Nigeria.

We estimate Nigeria’s solar power industry’s market size at approximately ₦146 billion, based on revenue generated during the financial year ended 31 December 2025. The off-grid segment is estimated to have contributed 95.9% of total industry revenue during the year under review, while the on-grid segment accounted for the remaining 4.1%. The Industry remains at an early stage of development and is characterised by a highly fragmented competitive landscape, with new participants continuing to enter the market in response to sustained demand for alternative power solutions. Market participants typically operate across distinct customer segments and business models. For example, Arnergy Solar Limited and Paras Energy and Natural Resources Development Limited are key providers of commercial and industrial (C&I) solar solutions, while Darway Coast Nigeria Limited focuses on the development and deployment of isolated and interconnected mini-grid projects. Earthbond primarily serves small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), offering solar energy solutions supported by carbon accounting capabilities.

The outlook for Nigeria’s solar industry remains positive, driven by increasing off-grid solar adoption among corporates, rural communities, and households seeking greater energy independence. We expect battery energy storage to play an increasingly important role in the development of the Industry. As solar deployment expands, storage solutions will enable power availability beyond daylight hours, enhance mini-grid reliability, and support hybrid systems serving commercial, industrial, and public-sector loads. However, we believe that grid infrastructure constraints, foreign exchange volatility, tariff uncertainty, affordability challenges and project bankability remain key risks to the Industry’s growth

The following audience has been taken into consideration in preparing this report:

• Bankers and financiers who wish to assess the creditworthiness of the Industry.
• Industry Operators who wish to gain a better understanding of developments in the Industry.
• Analysts, investors and other users of financial information who require a good understanding of the Industry.
• Regulators and policymakers seeking to understand contemporary issues in the industry.