2026 Oil & Gas Upstream Industry Report

Overview of the Report

Nigeria’s oil production registered modest growth in 2025, with total output rising 3.6% to 599.6 million barrels, equivalent to an average daily rate of 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd). The uptick reflected enhanced security measures, increased surveillance of critical evacuation infrastructure, and sustained well‑restoration efforts by operators. Drilling activity strengthened as investment spending accelerated, with the average number of active rigs increasing from 31 in 2024 to 40 in 2025. Despite these gains, production remained below the Federal Government’s budget benchmark of 2.06 mbpd, underscoring persistent infrastructure constraints, operational inefficiencies, and delays in bringing certain assets to full production.

Investment momentum accelerated during the year. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) approved 28 Field Development Plans representing roughly US$18.2 billion in committed investment; these projects are expected to unlock additional hydrocarbon reserves and support future output. A notable development was the US$2 billion final investment decision (FID) by Shell and Sunlink Energies for the HI gas development in OML 144, which is expected to supply up to 350 MMscf/d to Nigeria LNG. Licensing activity also intensified, with 50 blocks offered under the 2025 licensing round, while the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited continued its transformation agenda, including steps that could culminate in a public listing by 2028.

Natural gas remained a principal growth area, with production rising to 2.71 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), equivalent to 7.41 billion standard cubic feet per day (Bscf/d). Progress on major infrastructure projects strengthened the outlook: NLNG Train 7 is now over 80% complete and is expected to raise LNG capacity to 30 mtpa by 2027; the AKK Pipeline, together with expanding mini‑LNG and CNG programmes, should support both domestic and export gas markets.

Key challenges endure, notably pipeline vandalism, evacuation bottlenecks, delays in regulatory approvals, and tightening emissions‑compliance requirements. Revenues also remain exposed to global oil‑price volatility. Nevertheless, the medium‑term outlook is constructive, supported by Nigeria’s substantial hydrocarbon reserves, ongoing regulatory reforms, forthcoming licensing rounds, and measures intended to improve investment attractiveness and operational efficiency.

This report provides a comprehensive review of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Upstream Industry (“the Industry”), with particular focus on crude oil and natural gas exploration, development, and production activities. The report examines:

  • Global crude oil supply dynamics and market developments
  • The size, structure, performance, and key trends shaping the Industry
  • Emerging opportunities, investment drivers, and competitive developments
  • The regulatory environment, policy direction, and key risk factors
  • The outlook for production growth, investment activity, and energy transition alignment

The report is intended for:

  • Financial institutions and lenders assessing exposure to upstream operators
  • Industry participants monitoring market developments, partnerships, and licensing opportunities
  • Investors, analysts, and capital allocators seeking sector intelligence and strategic insights
  • Regulators and policymakers involved in industry oversight and reform initiatives

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