Nigeria’s oil production (including condensates) rose by 5% in 2024 to 1.58 million barrels per day (mbpd), supported by improved security and targeted government interventions. Rig activity also picked up, with the number of active rigs increasing from 14 to 18. However, production remained below the OPEC quota and the 1.78 mbpd budget target, as insecurity, sabotage, and infrastructure gaps continued to constrain output and raise operational costs.
In 2024, the industry secured three Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for the first time in nearly a decade, reflecting renewed investor confidence. These included Shell’s $5 billion Bonga North, TotalEnergies’ $566 million Ubeta gas project, and Shell’s $122 million Iseni gas development. Improved fiscal clarity and executive action helped drive these commitments, with two additional FIDs expected in 2025.
Crude production is projected to exceed the 1.5 mbpd OPEC quota in 2025, driven by new assets, licensing reforms, and better security coordination. Nonetheless, the 2.06 mbpd target set in the 2025 budget remains ambitious. On the gas side, production grew by 0.53% to 6.86 billion standard cubic feet per day in 2024 – the first increase since 2019 – and is poised to grow further in 2025.
While challenges from insecurity, aging assets, and regulatory delays persist, the medium-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Clearer rules under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), improved community engagement, and rising capital commitments point to a slow but steady recovery. Sustained reforms, infrastructure investment, and coordinated security efforts will be essential to unlocking Nigeria’s full upstream potential.
This report provides information on the Nigerian Oil and Gas Upstream Industry (‘the Industry’), with a focus on the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. Our report reviews the:
The following audience has been taken into consideration in the preparation of this report:
