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2016 Transport Infrastructure Industry Report

Transport Infrastructure Development in Nigeria has been largely skewed towards road development, while interests in other segments such as rail have only recently begun to emerge. This has been due in most part, to the meagre allocations dedicated to capital expenditure relative to recurrent expenditure over the past five years .Since rail infrastructure in Nigeria has become obsolete, and recent capital expenditure allocations aimed at reviving the sector have proved inadequate, there is a need to attract private capital into the sector.  However, as the present administration has realized the importance of increased investments to transport structure in the economy, we expect rail infrastructure activities to increase, since majority of the transportation of goods and services in Nigeria already occur by road.

The introduction of Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) into transport infrastructure has served to improve the prospects of road and rail construction in Nigeria. The country’s government coffers have been strained as a result of OPEC’s adoption of the market share strategy to push out high-cost oil producing companies, which has only served to drive down oil prices to historic lows. Coupled with militant activities in the Niger Delta region, leading to the crippling of oil production Nigeria’s export earnings capacity has been materially affected. By encouraging private sector investments in transport infrastructure development, the burden of raising capital on the government would be reduced and could help to reduce the project completion period. Thus, the growing incidence of PPPs as a method of procurement in transport infrastructure is expected to continue.

This report provides Agusto & Co.’s analysis of Nigeria’s Transport Infrastructure Development, with a focus on road and rail infrastructure. We include key assessments, forecast figures, public procurement and spending on road and rail infrastructure in the economy. We have also provided a PESTLE analysis, which considers the core effects Nigeria’s operating environment has on present and prospective transport infrastructure projects. Our report highlights the major challenges being faced by operators involved in the value chain of transport infrastructure development in Nigeria such as the sharp drop in crude oil prices and security challenges arising from domestic terrorism in the North Eastern and Niger-Delta regions. We also consider the impact of key regulatory changes to the progress made in road and rail infrastructure development, as well as potential opportunities that may arise.

Our report may be used by investors, analysts, regulatory bodies and government agencies to understand the risks and rewards involved in transport infrastructure development activities in Nigeria. Based on our findings from market surveillance, desk research and analysis, we have been able to formulate a risk rating on transport infrastructure development in Nigeria, which is also included in the report.

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